Friday, December 2, 2011

Investing in Cebu Air, Inc. (CEB) – A Quick Techincal Analysis


In addition to my previous post on Cebu Pacific Airlines, I’ve added a quick technical point of view on the matter below. 

Even though my previous post indicated some positive factors that you may consider in your evaluation of CEB, the charts may tell us otherwise. According to the lines drawn above, CEB for the past year has been following a downwards trend with no broad signs of any long term reversals.
Although CEB broke out during May of this year and continued to trade above its 60 and 100 day simple moving average (SMA), it struggled to maintain this trend when it crossed back below both SMAs after a months time and it stayed that way after July. Since then, it has continued to trade well below the 60, 100, and 200 day SMA. 

Moreover, from May to September, a symmetrical triangle formation (blue lines) emerged that eventually concluded with the stock breaking down from PHP 80 to PHP 67. This was largely due to the global sell off period that was brought about by the U.S. and European debt crisis.  Nonetheless, we can see a smaller symmetrical triangle formation surface (pink lines) as the stock trades thinly on it’s new support line of PHP 67-68. If the stock does not pick up within the next couple of weeks, it is highly possible that CEB is poised for another break down. 

On the flip side, with the PSEi trading on a more positive outlook, we may see a short term upswing with the stock due to a possible rounding bottom formation that could also be seen in its MACD and RSI levels.


Furthermore, with the RSI in the oversold territory, this is a good technical indication for CEB to potentially go up. Hence, short-term traders may consider purchasing the stock at around PHP 69 and selling it at PHP 73-74.

Overall, if you’re a long term investor relying heavily on the charts (which sounds ironic), you may consider staying away from CEB for now. The best time to enter into a position with CEB is to wait for its long term downward trend to reverse.

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